Global equity markets climbed higher in August, but not without challenges to overcome. From rising bond yields to escalating wars—both in the traditional and commercial sense of the word—investor attention has been asked to be everywhere all at once.
AI Is It, It Is Not AI
Analysts—ourselves included—have noted that the immense capital costs behind the AI buildout must generate results that investors can rationalize. Those expectations, unspoken as they are, fluctuate. Naturally, technology valuations have been just as volatile.
Fresh off stellar corporate earnings reports against a backdrop of surprising economic resiliency, technology momentum resumed after being arrested by July’s sell-off. Semiconductors regained their poise after a month off, yet software stocks made greater strides. Previously cast as victims of February’s SaaSpocalypse, the recovery story is secondary to:
Technology is not a monolith, and sub-sector variation exists.
Interrelated stories can resolve along different timelines.
Beyond the reminders it offers, the chips-to-software rotation could signify a shift from expensive infrastructure to profitable enterprise applications.
Well-Oiled Conflict
The unfortunate deterioration of Tehran-Washington negotiations has given way to renewed military strikes. Central to the conflict and the broader global economy, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively still hostage. Nominal oil prices are rapidly climbing and nearing a potentially critical $100/barrel threshold.
More concerning would be what we’ve floated in prior commentary. If the disruption evolves into a shortage of physical oil supplies, the broader economic damage would be substantial and uneven. The difference between who can affordit?and who can access it? is far, far larger than one word implies.
Cross-Border Blows
Opening with a positive note is warranted: the Canadian stock market posted a strong gain in August as commodities (gold and oil) and the financials sector pushed higher.
This does little to offset household finances and the corporate environment, who will need to absorb a fresh wave of tariffs. Although levied at the national level, Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. are expected to feel the new measures more acutely due to the sectors being targeted.
Recognizing the disadvantage our smaller economy creates, the Federal Government’s countermeasures take a similar tact. By issuing retaliatory tariffs against swing states and their crucial exports, that political leverage ahead of midterms might supplement the economic pressure we lack.
Closing on a positive note is also warranted: this issue stems from decades of overreliance on the United States as a trading partner. Disentrenchment through diversification takes time, but the share of Canadian exports to other nations is at a four-decade high.
Market returns for August 2026
Indices
Month to Date
Year to Date
S&P TSX
3.10%
16.04%
S&P 500 (CAD)
1.48%
14.26%
MSCI EAFE (CAD)
0.77%
15.49%
FTSE CA Bond Index
-0.22%
0.44%
Commodities
Month to Date
Year to Date
WTI Crude (USD/bbl)
$85.76 (↑ $4.27)
↑ $28.81
Gold (USD/oz)
$4,437 (↑ $391)
↑ $118
Currencies
Month to Date
Year to Date
CAD/USD
71.18¢ (↑ 0.86¢)
↓ 0.68¢
Also in this issue:
Two rotations in three months. A concentrated portfolio, timed perfectly, would have been rewarded at both. Short of perfect timing, the same portfolio absorbs the sharpest reversals.
Fixed income is rarely the reason a portfolio performs well in a strong year, and that is not the job it was hired to do. Judged against its mandate rather than against the S&P 500, a modest year is not a disappointing one.
A lasting agreement in the Strait of Hormuz will need to answer practical questions as well as political ones. Iran has signalled that access will carry charges; the Washington may have different views.
A household approach to cybersecurity: the passwords, devices, and habits that close the windows AI has made cheap to find.
Market Minutes Report: September 2026
By Craig Ellis, CFA
Global equity markets climbed higher in August, but not without challenges to overcome. From rising bond yields to escalating wars—both in the traditional and commercial sense of the word—investor attention has been asked to be everywhere all at once.
AI Is It, It Is Not AI
Analysts—ourselves included—have noted that the immense capital costs behind the AI buildout must generate results that investors can rationalize. Those expectations, unspoken as they are, fluctuate. Naturally, technology valuations have been just as volatile.
Fresh off stellar corporate earnings reports against a backdrop of surprising economic resiliency, technology momentum resumed after being arrested by July’s sell-off. Semiconductors regained their poise after a month off, yet software stocks made greater strides. Previously cast as victims of February’s SaaSpocalypse, the recovery story is secondary to:
Beyond the reminders it offers, the chips-to-software rotation could signify a shift from expensive infrastructure to profitable enterprise applications.
Well-Oiled Conflict
The unfortunate deterioration of Tehran-Washington negotiations has given way to renewed military strikes. Central to the conflict and the broader global economy, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively still hostage. Nominal oil prices are rapidly climbing and nearing a potentially critical $100/barrel threshold.
More concerning would be what we’ve floated in prior commentary. If the disruption evolves into a shortage of physical oil supplies, the broader economic damage would be substantial and uneven. The difference between who can afford it? and who can access it? is far, far larger than one word implies.
Cross-Border Blows
Opening with a positive note is warranted: the Canadian stock market posted a strong gain in August as commodities (gold and oil) and the financials sector pushed higher.
This does little to offset household finances and the corporate environment, who will need to absorb a fresh wave of tariffs. Although levied at the national level, Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. are expected to feel the new measures more acutely due to the sectors being targeted.
Recognizing the disadvantage our smaller economy creates, the Federal Government’s countermeasures take a similar tact. By issuing retaliatory tariffs against swing states and their crucial exports, that political leverage ahead of midterms might supplement the economic pressure we lack.
Closing on a positive note is also warranted: this issue stems from decades of overreliance on the United States as a trading partner. Disentrenchment through diversification takes time, but the share of Canadian exports to other nations is at a four-decade high.
Market returns for August 2026
Also in this issue:
Two rotations in three months. A concentrated portfolio, timed perfectly, would have been rewarded at both. Short of perfect timing, the same portfolio absorbs the sharpest reversals.
Fixed income is rarely the reason a portfolio performs well in a strong year, and that is not the job it was hired to do. Judged against its mandate rather than against the S&P 500, a modest year is not a disappointing one.
A lasting agreement in the Strait of Hormuz will need to answer practical questions as well as political ones. Iran has signalled that access will carry charges; the Washington may have different views.
A household approach to cybersecurity: the passwords, devices, and habits that close the windows AI has made cheap to find.
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