{"id":2346,"date":"2026-04-08T09:57:31","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/ryan-carrier\/resources\/iran-strait-of-hormuz-investment-portfolio-impact\/?lang=en"},"modified":"2026-04-15T11:59:57","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T17:59:57","slug":"iran-strait-of-hormuz-investment-portfolio-impact","status":"publish","type":"resources","link":"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/ryan-carrier\/resources\/iran-strait-of-hormuz-investment-portfolio-impact\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Market Impacts for Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">\n{\n  \"@context\": \"https:\/\/schema.org\",\n  \"@type\": \"Article\",\n  \"headline\": \"Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Market Impacts for Investors\",\n  \"description\": \"Explore the implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and the surprising cascading effects of higher oil prices.\",\n  \"image\": [\n    \"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Strait-to-the-Point.png\"\n  ],\n  \"datePublished\": \"2026-04-08T00:00:00-04:00\",\n  \"dateModified\": \"2026-04-15T13:58:00-04:00\",\n  \"author\": {\n    \"@type\": \"Person\",\n    \"name\": \"Craig Ellis\",\n    \"jobTitle\": \"Chief Investment Officer\",\n    \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/team\/craig-ellis\/\"\n  },\n  \"publisher\": {\n    \"@type\": \"Organization\",\n    \"name\": \"Bellwether Investment Management\",\n    \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\",\n    \"logo\": {\n      \"@type\": \"ImageObject\",\n      \"url\": \"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Bellwether-Logo.svg\"\n    }\n  },\n  \"mainEntityOfPage\": {\n    \"@type\": \"WebPage\",\n    \"@id\": \"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/resources\/iran-strait-of-hormuz-investment-portfolio-impact\/\"\n  }\n}\n<\/script>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for a month\u2014the first time in modern history. Its impact on the global economy and markets at large has been broad, its resolution remains uncertain, and the range of possible outcomes is unusually wide. This report is aimed at helping make sense of what the Iran conflict means for Canadian investors.<br><br>As a dynamic situation, the circumstances are constantly evolving. Through our <em>Needs, Means, &amp; Seams<\/em> framework, we examine what these developments mean for clients and why proactive diversification remains our most durable form of protection\u2014and not just from rising oil prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-text-color has-alpha-channel-opacity has-background\" style=\"background-color:#a99867;color:#a99867\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br>Since February 28, the Strait of Hormuz\u2014through which roughly one-fifth of global oil, liquefied natural gas, and critical industrial commodities ordinarily flow\u2014has been effectively cordoned off. What began with coordinated U.S.-Israeli strikes <a href=\"https:\/\/bellvest.aflip.in\/market-minutes-mar-2026.html\">on Iranian military infrastructure<\/a> escalated as Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard Corps shut the waterway to international shipping.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maritime traffic has collapsed by more than 90%, with some 2,000 ships stranded on either side. President Trump has extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the channel amid fragile and, at times, contradictory negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The market response through March has been consistent with a broad repricing of risk. Equities have sold off, the U.S. dollar has strengthened as investors sought safety in the world\u2019s reserve currency, bond yields have crept higher on concerns over more persistent inflation, and credit spreads have widened. While geopolitical events tend to follow a familiar arc\u2014an initial sell-off, uncertainty, and an eventual recovery\u2014the Strait of Hormuz has some unique qualities, not because of the conflict itself, but because of what flows through it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As demonstrated in Figure 1, the waterway\u2019s importance extends well beyond oil. The Gulf region produces nearly half the world\u2019s urea and roughly 30% of global ammonia\u2014key fertilizer inputs, which we use as an illustrative example below\u2014along with significant volumes of helium, aluminium, sulphur, and petrochemicals. The International Energy Agency has described the situation as the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/new-iea-report-highlights-options-to-ease-oil-price-pressures-on-consumers-in-response-to-middle-east-supply-disruptions\">largest oil supply disruption in history<\/a>, and while that is a significant statement, the practical effects are being partially offset by strategic reserve releases and rerouting that have kept markets functioning, if under strain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"global-trade-volume-through-strait\" style=\"font-size:25px\">Fig. 1: Share of Global Trade Volume Through the Strait <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/content-hub\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/strait-of-hormuz-shipping-energy@3x.png\" alt=\"Chart illustrating the diverse range of commodities transiting the Strait of Hormuz, demonstrating the waterway's role well beyond crude oil in global trade.\" class=\"wp-image-12263\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source(s): <a href=\"https:\/\/unctad.org\/publication\/strait-hormuz-disruptions-implications-global-trade-and-development\">UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD)<\/a>, based on data provided by Clarksons Research 2026.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-mixed-messaging\" style=\"font-size:25px\">Mixed Messaging Contributing to Market Uncertainty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The scale of the disruption explains the market reaction; the difficulty lies in gauging how long it lasts. What has compounded the uncertainty is the difficulty in reading the situation\u2019s trajectory. The U.S. administration\u2019s messaging has been inconsistent\u2014from threats to destroy Iranian power infrastructure, to claims of productive negotiations, to extended deadlines\u2014making it challenging for markets to price a resolution with any confidence. That ambiguity has been as much a source of volatility as the physical disruption itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-degrees-of-separation\" style=\"font-size:25px\">Cascading Effects Across Supply Chains<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil is the most visible disruption, and as the first link of an integrated supply chain, the knock-on effects follow from there. Crude oil is refined into petrochemicals that produce nitrogen-rich fertilizer; that fertilizer grows corn; corn becomes livestock feed; feed raises cattle and poultry; and consumer protein eventually reaches grocery shelves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Every degree of separation adds time before markets can normalize. It is worth noting, however, that many of these downstream effects remain in their early stages\u2014and their severity depends almost entirely on how long the disruption persists. A swift resolution might allow supply chains to recalibrate more readily than headlines suggest, while a prolonged closure could compound the pressure at each successive stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some relief has come through alternative pipeline routes moving approximately nine million barrels per day. While less than half the Strait\u2019s normal throughput, it remains a meaningful offset that, together with strategic reserves, has helped prevent worst-case scenarios from materializing thus far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" style=\"font-size:20px\">Strait of Hormuz Closure Investment Impact, March 2026 Market Performance<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It&#8217;s worth noting that the loonie weakened against the greenback, providing a lift to Canadian investors holding USD-denominated securities. As the table below demonstrates, global geopolitical risks are still present, as does regional performance dispersion. The MSCI EAFE Index has performed admirably year-to-date, but immediate pressures across the Middle East may pose a greater risk to Eurasian countries that rely on energy imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Market Segments<\/th><th>Month-to-Date<\/th><th>Year-to-Date<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>S&amp;P\/TSX Composite Index<\/td><td>-4.28%<\/td><td>3.93%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500 (CAD)<\/td><td>-2.68%<\/td><td>-2.66%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MSCI EAFE Index (CAD)<\/td><td>-8.17%<\/td><td>0.46%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index<\/td><td>-1.98%<\/td><td>0.23%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>West Texas Intermediate (USD\/bbl)<\/td><td>$101.38 (+$34.49)<\/td><td>+$44.38<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gold (USD\/oz)<\/td><td>$4,668 (+$611)<\/td><td>+$349<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CAD\/USD Exchange Rate<\/td><td>71.86\u00a2 (-1.45\u00a2)<\/td><td>-1.00\u00a2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source(s): Bloomberg Finance LP. As at March 31, 2026.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-needs-means-amp-seams\" style=\"font-size:25px\">Needs, Means, &amp; Seams<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In our most recent <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/resources\/read-our-latest-quarterly-insights\/\">Quarterly Insights<\/a><\/em>, we introduced this framework to examine how capital allocation is shaped by structural demand, the resources available to meet it, and the fault lines between them. The current crisis provides a useful application.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Needs.<\/em><\/strong> The commodities flowing through the Strait are not discretionary\u2014they are embedded in food production, semiconductor manufacturing, and heavy industry. What this crisis has exposed is less about the disruption itself and more about the structural vulnerability of concentrating so many essential inputs through a single 21-nautical-mile corridor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Means. <\/em><\/strong>The short-term workarounds to mobilize commodities are functional but perhaps unsustainable, and the more meaningful development may be what&#8217;s happening beyond them. Taiwan is restarting nuclear reactors, India has signed a new uranium supply agreement with Canada&#8217;s Cameco, and capital is flowing into North American small modular reactor projects. We can, in a sense, read these developments as the global economy&#8217;s own version of correcting insufficient diversification in real time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><em>Seams.<\/em><\/strong> The gap between what the world requires and how it can currently access those resources has created enormous dispersion across markets\u2014Gulf producers under pressure while North American peers earn a premium, gold defying safe-haven expectations as dollar strength takes precedence, central banks caught between inflationary risks and slowing growth. That breadth of dispersion across asset classes, geographies, and sectors is precisely what diversified portfolios are designed to manoeuvre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-how-we-re-positioned\" style=\"font-size:25px\">How We&#8217;re Positioned for Volatility<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not an easily tradable event because the range of outcomes is so wide. The conflict could be resolved in days, or it could persist for months. A withdrawal of U.S. forces would likely prompt a broad market rally\u2014even if the Strait remained closed and infrastructure damage lingered. While energy prices might remain elevated, investor sentiment may improve well ahead of the fundamentals. Conversely, an escalation or prolonged standoff would deepen the pressures we\u2019ve described.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Like many others, our working thesis has been that the Republican Party can ill afford a long, drawn-out conflict given the unpopularity of high gasoline prices and a costly war with voters as they head into midterm elections this fall. The U.S. administration\u2019s objectives, however, have been difficult to pin down; what constitutes a \u201cwin\u201d has shifted repeatedly, making it harder for investors to calibrate expectations around duration or resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This scenario is where diversification demonstrates its value as a proactive, deliberate choice rather than a passive default. Market segments have reacted differently to the unfolding crisis, and they are likely to exhibit equally distinct responses to its resolution depending on what form it takes. Shipping lanes could reopen the same day hostilities cease, or they could remain obstructed for far longer. North American energy producers may respond well to one scenario, European industrials to another, and fixed income to yet another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Given the sheer number of possibilities, timelines, and variables at play, diversification distributes risk across outcomes rather than relying on any specific one breaking in the right direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bellwether&#8217;s approach to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/investment-management\/\">investment management<\/a> was not devised because we anticipated this conflict\u2014it was designed because our philosophy has always prioritized risk mitigation, diversified income streams, and the kind of global breadth that distributes exposure rather than localizes it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Our strategies have safeguarded capital better than broader indices (as seen in the <em>Market Statistics<\/em> table) throughout this disruption, allowing us to opportunistically rebalance portfolios on behalf of our clients\u2014to take profits where prices have surged while acquiring quality at reduced valuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As Figure 2 illustrates, markets have historically found their footing once the smoke of uncertainty begins to clear\u2014and for all its differences from past flareups, this event remains a geopolitical one. The investments and infrastructure decisions being made today\u2014by nations diversifying energy sources, by companies seeking more reliable supply chains\u2014are laying the groundwork for what comes next.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-fig-1-the-s-amp-p-500-after-major-geopolitical-events\" style=\"font-size:25px\">Fig. 2: The S&amp;P 500 After Major Geopolitical Events<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/content-hub\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/SP-1yr-forward-returns@3x.png\" alt=\"Historical bar chart of S&amp;P 500 returns in the year following nine major geopolitical events, illustrating that markets have consistently recovered despite short-term volatility, with an average forward return of 14.2%.\" class=\"wp-image-12262\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Source(s): Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard &amp; Poor&#8217;s. March 2, 2026.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The realm of possibility is wide. Strategies built on diversification, income, and fundamentals are not confined to a single outcome\u2014they are positioned to navigate whichever one arrives.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"yoast-breadcrumbs\"><span><span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/ryan-carrier\/\">Home<\/a><\/span> \u00bb <span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bellvest.ca\/ryan-carrier\/resources\/\">Resources<\/a><\/span> \u00bb <span class=\"breadcrumb_last\" aria-current=\"page\">Strait to the Point: Iran, Oil Prices, &amp; More<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":2347,"template":"","resources-categories":[23],"resources-type":[7],"class_list":["post-2346","resources","type-resources","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","resources-categories-market-commentary","resources-type-blog-post"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.4 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and Market Impacts for Investors - 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